As the days get longer one has the opportunity to
reflect not only on what has occurred in the past but also the present.
During some of these reflective moments it has
occurred to me that for most of the time man has roamed this big Blue
Marble, the world that people were born into did not really change at
all by the time they passed on. The last seven generations, however, has
been different - far more exceptional for all of us – in fact, this time
period, 1850 – 2012, has been downright astonishing. It can be argued
one of the reasons for this is that we live longer today, almost twice
as long as our ancestors prior to 1900.
Still, think about this. People prior to the Civil
War, 1861, were mostly
involved in some type of farming enterprise but they also lived during a
time of railroads, electricity and the large economic change, when
industrial manufacturing became a larger part of the nation's GDP than
agricultural goods.
Their children, born into an era of horses, wagons,
and railroads also lived during the era of automobiles, airplanes,
movies, radio, widespread use of the telephone, and an expanding modern
middle class. And for the most part this was all accomplished with both
their earnings and savings and in some instances secured credit. But
there were no credit cards, ATM’s, or unsecured credit for the masses.
Their grandchildren born during the same era also
lived during the time of TV, the jet age, corporate computerization,
credit cards, unsecured credit for the masses along with truly competent
medicine. Their great grandchildren, my children, became adults during
the space age, along with personal computers and numerous electronic
gadgets and software that defy description.
The fact is , for the last seven generations, all
of us were born into one world and then came of age in a completely
different one.
Certainly there are some who try desperately to
hold onto the past, particularly if it accounts for their livelihoods,
during a period of great transformation. Think of the farmers in the
early 1890s who had become so proficient at growing crops that the
resulting surplus of their harvests led to a significant collapse in all
produce prices. Many farmers lost their farms, unable to pay their debts
secured by their farms, due to the decrease in prices for their
products. Yet, for every farmer who lost his farm, a neighboring farmer
in better financial condition, would buy it and, with the implementation
of modern mechanical farming that lowered production costs, increased
the crop yield from previous years allowing the farmer to make a better
living on the same land where his neighbor had failed.
I think of my wife’s grandfather, a country
blacksmith, who probably battled the advancement of the automobile and
yet for every blacksmith who faded from memory, thousands found new
careers because of the automobile. Whether it was manufacturing them; or
as mechanics; or building and maintaining the new highways that
automobiles required. Not surprisingly, in spite of the good fortune to
be alive during this time of incredible change, people complained about
the cost of cars, the cost of fuel, the prices mechanics charged to
repair them and how much our highway systems cost and to this day those
complaints continue.
The price of a 1901 Oldsmobile, $700.00, looks
extremely cheap today. But consider the average worker in America made only $0.22 cents an
hour in 1900 and worked 53 hours per week, taking home just over $600 a
year. Today, the average worker in
America
earns $23 an hour, the work week has shrunk to 37 hours, and the average
annual take home is just over $33,000 a year. We work 832 fewer hours
then our grandparents and great grandparents and our average annual take
home pay is 5000 percent greater than theirs.
And yet, we still complain about our work hours and low pay.
1952 – 1977 is often considered the most
significant generation of innovation that propelled us into today’s
world. It was during the 1960’s sixties that the financial world and our
medium of exchange began to experience changes that would affect both
consumer and business credit. Bank of America in San
Francisco and Preston State Bank in
Dallas
introduced a plastic purchasing card for its customers that eventually
evolved into the Visa and MasterCard which would lead to the largest
expansion of consumer debt. It would also pave the way for the end of
currency made of paper and coin and lead to the recognition of credit
and collections as a professional occupation rather than clerical.
Prior to the introduction of the consumer credit
card (excluding Diners Club and oil and gas travel cards) the consumer
paid for their everyday needs with cash. Generally, personal credit was
limited to home mortgages, auto loans, and the occasional personal loan
available through a finance company who charged high interest and made
loans, generally, to people who did not need the money.
In 1968 the banks ceased paying out gold or silver
for bank notes ( U.S.
currency) and in 1972 the currency of the
United States was no longer backed by
either gold or silver. The end of the Vietnam war in 1975 brought about
a demand for innovative and inexpensive products
that created new manufacturing and distribution channels. It also
changed what companies we purchased products from and how and where
American companies manufactured their products. In 1975, a Harvard
University drop out, named Bill Gates and his boyhood friend Paul Allen,
founded Microsoft, a
software company, in New Mexico and incorporated it in 1976. It became
and still is the largest personal software company in the world. A year
later, two high school students in Palo Alto,
California
working out of their garage created a personal computer. Today, Apple
Inc, the company Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak started is the largest
public company in history, by capitalization, surpassing Microsoft.
The next generation beginning in 1978 through 2003
brought continued innovation and prosperity along with two recessions
and a major downturn in the stock market. And yet, when the dotcom
bubble burst in the late 1990s, it had no real effect on the progress
made in expanding the Internet, or in the improvement in high-speed
connections, video streaming, or the expansion of online commerce. All
these and more dramatically improved with new products being created and
introduced during and after the 1990 collapse.
Therein may be the secret to where our future is
headed. For one only has to look at the industries that either prosper
or sometimes just survive during the worst economic upheavals. For
example the Sony Corporation really didn’t come of age with personal
entertainment devices, like the Walkman, until the great recession of
1980. The rapid expansion of sales for DVRs, DVDs, microwave ovens and
personal computers also didn’t occur until the same three-year downturn.
It may come as a surprise, to many, that the one
industry that's remained constant, through both good and lean years, is
the American automobile industry. Although the Duryea Brothers, who
built the first gas-powered automobiles, quickly went out of business at
the beginning of the Panic of 1893, there were many others in that same
period working on perfecting the automobile. And although the most
innovative and efficient products are often created during difficult
times, we still continue to complain. We complain about air quality,
gasoline prices, transportation systems, food prices, celebrity,
athlete, and Wall Street salaries, our job or lack of a job, and taxes
to name just a few.
Four years ago gasoline, in the United States, cost over $4 a gallon
for the first time even though in other countries the prices were two
and three times that amount. Today, we have several automobile
manufactures who produce cars that exceed 35 mpg and there are electric
cars actually being sold and driven on our highways. One manufacturer
has recently announced a hybrid to be introduced in 2013 that will
achieve100 mpg. Contrary to popular belief , these products are no more
expensive than the Oldsmobile sold in 1901 and they are a heck of a lot
safer.
In September 1900 the city of Galveston, Texas
was hit by a category four hurricane. Often referred to as The Great
Storm, in part because hurricanes were not given names back then, it
claimed the lives of 12,000 people of which 4,000 were never found. The
city was totally destroyed with just a few structures left standing
after the storm. In 2005, a category five hurricane, named Katrina, did
severe damage to the city of New Orleans and surrounding areas along with many cities in
Mississippi. A total of 1,863 people perished in
a much larger hurricane then the one that hit
Galveston
in 1900. Why? Innovation and
technology that allowed the residents to prepare before Katrina made
landfall. In the 1900s hurricanes were reported by ships at sea after
they made it to port. There were no weather satellites, or airplanes
equipped to fly into the “eye” of the storm to measure wind speed and
velocity, nor was there a weather channel.
The citizens of Galveston had no warnings of what was going to occur and
were unprepared when the hurricane made landfall unlike the citizens who
resided in the coastal towns of Louisiana
and Mississippi.
We are, all complaints notwithstanding, living in
another golden era of new products and innovation that have replaced the
products that were, just a generation ago, also “new” and “innovative”.
Just as the television replaced the radio as the home entertainment
system for my parents, the Internet is the new medium of entertainment
for my children and one can only imagine what it will be for my
grandchildren and their children.
In addition to entertainment, the Internet has also
revolutionized our education system, the manner in which we socialize,
our shopping habits, the way we conduct our business, and the source and
delivery of our news. If one stops to think about it, the Internet is
responsible for more business failures, in all categories, then Wal-Mart
or any other big box store. In fact, there are many big box stores today
that have fallen on difficult times due to the Internet.
Then there is the smart phone, a device that
already has made the landline telephone, fax machine, and scanner
obsolete. It has eliminated any need for cassettes and compact disc’s to
play music or store data. There are presently over a million
applications that can be processed on a smart phone. We can store all of
our information, music, pictures, and movies on a Cloud or in a Drop Box
for immediate access anywhere in the world. Programs like Skype enable
us to video chat, an invention of Bell Labs in 1947 but not fully
developed for the masses until the 1990s, with friends and business
associates and programs such as You Tube allows everyone to have their
15 minutes, or greater, of fame whether they asked for it or not. We can
also make every-day purchases using smart phone applications
replacing the need to carry cash and/or credit/debit cards.
Just as our great-grandparents, grand-parents, and
parents, we are living in a world far different from the one we were
born into. And although we seem to be overwhelmed about this at times,
often because to us the change is spread over decades, history will
record it as incredibly rapid. In all, like the six previous
generations, this is an exciting time to live in.
And yet one would not realize it from the
continuing common whining and complaints we share with each other. In
that one respect, as long as we retain our human qualities, it is the
one thing that has been a constant through all of the generations and
innovative changes we have encountered.
Right Spock?
I Wish You
Well,
David Balovich is an author, credit consultant, educator, and public
speaker.
He
can be reached at
3jmcompany@gmail.com or through the Creditworthy website.